The coexistence or replacement of two subtypes of influenza.
Identifieur interne : 000505 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000504; suivant : 000506The coexistence or replacement of two subtypes of influenza.
Auteurs : Sarder Mohammed Asaduzzaman [Canada] ; Junling Ma [Canada] ; P. Van Den Driessche [Canada]Source :
- Mathematical biosciences [ 1879-3134 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Concepts mathématiques, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles biologiques, Pandémies, Saisons, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A, Vaccins antigrippaux (immunologie), Vaccins antigrippaux (pharmacologie).
- MESH :
- immunologie : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- pharmacologie : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Concepts mathématiques, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Pandémies, Saisons, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Influenza Vaccines (immunology), Influenza Vaccines (pharmacology), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (virology), Mathematical Concepts, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Seasons.
- MESH :
- chemical , immunology : Influenza Vaccines.
- chemical , pharmacology : Influenza Vaccines.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Mathematical Concepts, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Seasons.
Abstract
A pandemic subtype of influenza A sometimes replaces but sometimes coexists with the previous seasonal subtype. For example, the 1957 pandemic subtype H2N2 replaced the seasonal subtype H1N1; whereas after 1977 subtypes H1N1 (from the pandemic) and H3N2 continue to coexist. In an attempt to understand these alternatives, a hybrid model for the dynamics of influenza A is formulated. During an epidemic season the model takes into account cross-immunity of strains depending on the most recent seasonal infection. This cross-immunity reduces susceptibility to related strains of the seasonal subtype, and wanes with time due to virus drift. The population is assumed to reach an equilibrium distribution in susceptibility after several seasons, and then a pandemic subtype appears. Individuals who have been infected by the seasonal subtype all have the same cross-immunity to the pandemic subtype. A combination of theoretical and numerical analyses shows that for very strong cross-immunity between the subtypes the pandemic cannot invade, whereas for strong and weak cross-immunity there is coexistence for the season following the pandemic, and for intermediate levels of cross-immunity the pandemic may replace the seasonal subtype. This replacement depends on the basic reproduction numbers of seasonal and pandemic influenza. Vaccination against the seasonal subtype is found to slightly increase this range for pandemic replacement, with the range increasing with increasing vaccine protection and with the length of time that vaccine-induced immunity lasts.
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2015.09.006
PubMed: 26453807
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Electronic address: asaduzz@uvic.ca.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>V8W 2Y2</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Junling" sort="Ma, Junling" uniqKey="Ma J" first="Junling" last="Ma">Junling Ma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada. Electronic address: junlingm@uvic.ca.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>V8W 2Y2</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" sort="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P" first="P" last="Van Den Driessche">P. Van Den Driessche</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada. Electronic address: pvdd@math.uvic.ca.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>V8W 2Y2</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Mathematical biosciences</title><idno type="eISSN">1879-3134</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype</term><term>Influenza Vaccines (immunology)</term><term>Influenza Vaccines (pharmacology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Mathematical Concepts</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Concepts mathématiques</term><term>Grippe humaine ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Vaccins antigrippaux (immunologie)</term><term>Vaccins antigrippaux (pharmacologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="immunology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza Vaccines</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="pharmacology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza Vaccines</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="immunologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Vaccins antigrippaux</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pharmacologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Vaccins antigrippaux</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype</term><term>Mathematical Concepts</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Concepts mathématiques</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">A pandemic subtype of influenza A sometimes replaces but sometimes coexists with the previous seasonal subtype. For example, the 1957 pandemic subtype H2N2 replaced the seasonal subtype H1N1; whereas after 1977 subtypes H1N1 (from the pandemic) and H3N2 continue to coexist. In an attempt to understand these alternatives, a hybrid model for the dynamics of influenza A is formulated. During an epidemic season the model takes into account cross-immunity of strains depending on the most recent seasonal infection. This cross-immunity reduces susceptibility to related strains of the seasonal subtype, and wanes with time due to virus drift. The population is assumed to reach an equilibrium distribution in susceptibility after several seasons, and then a pandemic subtype appears. Individuals who have been infected by the seasonal subtype all have the same cross-immunity to the pandemic subtype. A combination of theoretical and numerical analyses shows that for very strong cross-immunity between the subtypes the pandemic cannot invade, whereas for strong and weak cross-immunity there is coexistence for the season following the pandemic, and for intermediate levels of cross-immunity the pandemic may replace the seasonal subtype. This replacement depends on the basic reproduction numbers of seasonal and pandemic influenza. Vaccination against the seasonal subtype is found to slightly increase this range for pandemic replacement, with the range increasing with increasing vaccine protection and with the length of time that vaccine-induced immunity lasts. </div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country></list><tree><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Asaduzzaman, Sarder Mohammed" sort="Asaduzzaman, Sarder Mohammed" uniqKey="Asaduzzaman S" first="Sarder Mohammed" last="Asaduzzaman">Sarder Mohammed Asaduzzaman</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Ma, Junling" sort="Ma, Junling" uniqKey="Ma J" first="Junling" last="Ma">Junling Ma</name><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" sort="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P" first="P" last="Van Den Driessche">P. Van Den Driessche</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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